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Mike Rinderle

17 million in the US have filed for unemployment in the last 3 weeks.  Over $7 trillion added to the debt and the Fed's balance sheet in the last month.

 

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Climber028

Wow last I saw it was only 12 that's crazy. We are so busy with shipping we're actually hiring more people now so I'll hopefully be able to knock unemployment down by 2 to 3 people, so I'm basically saving the economy. You're welcome everybody 

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Mike Rinderle

Politics aside, you have a much higher chance of dying from Corona if you live in a State with a Democrat Governor (top 8). Lol JK /S

I'm guessing that correlates to large Urban populations, although Texas and California are doing fantastic per capita (R & D) and both have massive urban centers and are the two most populace States.  Also, other than Louisiana, which seems to incur God's wrath on a weekly basis, the hotspots seem to be more in the North where it hasn't gotten warm yet.

The New York City metro area has about 40% of total US deaths (5 boroughs, suburbs, and northern NJ).  You poor guys are taking the brunt of this.  Stay strong!

 

Screenshot_20200409-154355_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Billy Jack
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Bearcat 74 said:

I think their is very little doubt that there have probably been 8-10x times the people who have had the virus compared to the confirmed positive tests. I have read so many reports from different countries that all have came to similar conclusions from testing and research. 

I have not really discussed this with anyone other than my wife, but I really think she may have had a go with this thing in early February. She is a teacher so she is obviously around several hundred middle school kids a day. She started with having a horrible cough and congestion and then started having chills (but no fever yet) so she went to the doctor one day. Negative for flu and negative for strep. Got antibiotics and steroid because doctor thought she may have had sinus infection. Fast forward about 7-8 days and she still can't lose the cough. One night, sitting in the living room, I notice a weird look on her face after a coughing fit. I ask her if she is OK and she said her chest felt tight and her breathing felt weird but she dismissed it after a few minutes. Her cough lasted for at least three to four weeks I swear.

On February 28 my two daughters went to stay with my Mom for the night which is pretty usual. My Mom calls about 7:30 and says my five year old is complaining about a sore throat and has a slight fever of about 100 degrees. I go pick her up and she says her throat is hurting really bad. We do not give her anything because we usually do not unless the fever gets over 102 since a fever is the body's natural response to fighting some type of infection. The next two days we have to give her Motrin several times as her fever finally gets to a high of 102.7 or 102.8 or so. No more sore throat or cough though. Fever finally breaks on the third day and is gone. We initially chalked this up to her having a filling and pulpotomy done at the dentist a few weeks prior and thought she may have just had some infection in the tooth. My oldest daughter and myself never really had any symptoms other than me having a pretty consistent headache on and off for a couple of days at work which is really out of the norm. 

I started putting all of this together about three weeks ago and we have wondered if this was the current virus or just a massive coincidence. We never had the loss of smell/taste or body aches that a lot of people had and no real fever other than my daughter. Has anyone else had similar stuff happen? 

I know Bill said something previously about his family in Birmingham thinking they may have had it recently. I live within 35 miles of Birmingham as well.

 

Edited by Billy Jack
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Bearcat 74

Something ran through here starting in November like wild fire.  Everyone had multiple trips to the dr with steroids and antibiotics and nothing touched it.  It was diagnosed as severe or abnormal bronchitis, everyone tested negative for the flu.  Loss of smell and taste, couldn’t breath, etc.  Most kept it 2-3 weeks and then could get around better. 

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Mike Rinderle

Latest article I read estimated the percentage of cases captured by testing at 6%.  Some estimates have been as low as 1%.  That would mean for every confirmed case, there are 16 to 100 people that have had it.  

Positives for herd immunity sooner and it means the death rate is way below 1%.  They won't really know until it's all over and tons of antibody testing is done.

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Mike Rinderle

Our family had a nasty crud in early March.  I got it the worst.  Loss of smell, nasty cold, etc.  Wife had a cold.  Son just a cough.

My mother-in-law's boss came back from Mardi gras and got sick, then she got it, then ran through us.

I'm 75% sure it was the covid, but who knows?  Still behaving myself like I haven't had it just in case.

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Mike Rinderle

New York metro area = 0.2% of world's population yet has 7% of the world's COVID-19 deaths.  

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Bearcat 74

Is NY still not allowing hydroxychloroquine?   I know NY and Michigan had not allowed it and then they were begging for it, I never did read up if they did or not?   
 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8201783/Some-doctors-moving-away-ventilators-virus-patients.html

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Billy Jack
Posted (edited)

The ventilator research in that article may have lead to testing the method in the link below. Someone shared this info the other day as I have several acquaintances who work at UAB which is renowned leader in research of infectious and other diseases:

https://www.uab.edu/news/research/item/11223-uab-among-first-in-the-u-s-to-offer-clinical-trial-for-the-treatment-of-patients-with-severe-covid-19-using-nitric-oxide

Edited by Billy Jack
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Mike Rinderle
30 minutes ago, Bearcat 74 said:

Is NY still not allowing hydroxychloroquine?   I know NY and Michigan had not allowed it and then they were begging for it, I never did read up if they did or not?   
 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8201783/Some-doctors-moving-away-ventilators-virus-patients.html

Not sure, but the New York City and Detroit metro areas have over 50% of COVID related deaths in the US.  

The two areas have a combined population of 25 million, or 7.5% of the US population.  Something is not right.  

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Climber028

The explosion in the south east is still yet to come. Their higher obesity rates are going to make them much more susceptible, tho likely not as bad as NYC due to more reasonable population numbers

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Mike Rinderle
7 minutes ago, Climber028 said:

The explosion in the south east is still yet to come. Their higher obesity rates are going to make them much more susceptible, tho likely not as bad as NYC due to more reasonable population numbers

We'll see.  Hope not.  Hopefully warm weather tempers it some.

Their death rates are 35 X what their population suggests they should be.  Obviously NYC is very densely populated, but Detroit metro isn't.  And other cities around the world with more density than NYC have faired much better.

For the US score card, I'm keeping an eye on our deaths vs. Europe.  We have 1/2 Europe's population.  If we can keep our number less than half of theirs, we will have done well in my book.  More than half, we will have done poorly.  Right now, we are running at about 25%, but most of Europe is further along the curve than we are.  

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Mike Rinderle
Posted (edited)

Just in:

The IHME model that originally forecast 100k - 250k deaths by August 4th, which was later revised down to 90k, and then 81k, has just been revised again.

They are now forecasting a total of 60k deaths total for the US by August 4th.

Either Trump is the greatest pandemic fighter the world has ever seen, or the original models were way off.  It has to be one of the two.  Either the steps he has taken have saved hundreds of thousands or this was never more serious than a bad flu season and the original estimates drove us to destroy the world's economy and screw the next 10 generations with crippling debt.  I'm going with mostly #2 and fear porn drove us to make very bad decisions.  

Edited by Mike Rinderle
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Hubgeezer
1 hour ago, Mike Rinderle said:

Not sure, but the New York City and Detroit metro areas have over 50% of COVID related deaths in the US.  

The two areas have a combined population of 25 million, or 7.5% of the US population.  Something is not right.  

I don't know about Detroit. But, the New York Subway System, seems to me, would have been unbelievably toxic. People jammed together, hanging onto overhead and other rails, coughing during regular flu season on each other, etc. Not a lot of places in the US that have a commuting system used by so many different social and economic types.  Does not surprise me. 

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Tommy J.
3 hours ago, Billy Jack said:

I think their is very little doubt that there have probably been 8-10x times the people who have had the virus compared to the confirmed positive tests. I have read so many reports from different countries that all have came to similar conclusions from testing and research. 

I have not really discussed this with anyone other than my wife, but I really think she may have had a go with this thing in early February. She is a teacher so she is obviously around several hundred middle school kids a day. She started with having a horrible cough and congestion and then started having chills (but no fever yet) so she went to the doctor one day. Negative for flu and negative for strep. Got antibiotics and steroid because doctor thought she may have had sinus infection. Fast forward about 7-8 days and she still can't lose the cough. One night, sitting in the living room, I notice a weird look on her face after a coughing fit. I ask her if she is OK and she said her chest felt tight and her breathing felt weird but she dismissed it after a few minutes. Her cough lasted for at least three to four weeks I swear.

On February 28 my two daughters went to stay with my Mom for the night which is pretty usual. My Mom calls about 7:30 and says my five year old is complaining about a sore throat and has a slight fever of about 100 degrees. I go pick her up and she says her throat is hurting really bad. We do not give her anything because we usually do not unless the fever gets over 102 since a fever is the body's natural response to fighting some type of infection. The next two days we have to give her Motrin several times as her fever finally gets to a high of 102.7 or 102.8 or so. No more sore throat or cough though. Fever finally breaks on the third day and is gone. We initially chalked this up to her having a filling and pulpotomy done at the dentist a few weeks prior and thought she may have just had some infection in the tooth. My oldest daughter and myself never really had any symptoms other than me having a pretty consistent headache on and off for a couple of days at work which is really out of the norm. 

I started putting all of this together about three weeks ago and we have wondered if this was the current virus or just a massive coincidence. We never had the loss of smell/taste or body aches that a lot of people had and no real fever other than my daughter. Has anyone else had similar stuff happen? 

I know Bill said something previously about his family in Birmingham thinking they may have had it recently. I live within 35 miles of Birmingham as well.

 

I got pretty bad sick last year around November. Definite lung issue. Bad cough, phlegm, fever off and on for multiple days, 2 doctor visits. Never tested positive for anything. Was given prednisone twice and an inhaler once. Lasted literally a month before I was back feeling normal. 

I know others that had nearly identical symptoms around that same time last year.

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Tommy J.
1 hour ago, Mike Rinderle said:

Just in:

The IHME models that originally forecast 100k - 250k deaths by August 4th, which was later revised down to 90k, and then 81k, has just been revised again.

They are now forecasting a total of 60k deaths total for the US by August 4th. 

👍🏻

Either Trump is the greatest pandemic fighter the world has ever seen, or the original models were way off.  It has to be one of the two.  Either the steps he has taken have saved hundreds of thousands or this was never more serious than a bad flu season and the original estimates drove us to destroy the world's economy and screw the next 10 generations with crippling debt.  I'm going with mostly #2 and fear porn drove us to make very bad decisions.  

Exactly. I’m thinking it’s somewhere in the middle of these 2.

 

also, I’m getting real fed up with the hatred and scolding being thrown at those who think this thing is fake, or blown out of proportion. Let them believe what they want and keep your emotions in check. Since your so much smarter than the guy who doesn’t believe it, prove it by how well you can keep your emotions out of it. Only a sick (bad word filter) would “want” this thing to be as bad as its being sold. And only a sick (bad word filter) piece of shit would “want” a non believer to eat their words on what they believe and end up sick with it.

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Hubgeezer
Posted (edited)
On 4/8/2020 at 1:16 PM, Mike Rinderle said:

I think there seems to be 3 camps on this.  Of course there are shades of grey, but 3 basic camps as near as I can tell:

1.  This is a hoax / nothing burger / vast government conspiracy 

2.  This is a serious pandemic but I'm not so scared of dying that I'm willing to give up my rights and freedoms while saddling the next 5 generations of my family with crushing debt so I can feel a little safer

3. I'm so afraid of dying from the WuFru that I am willing to screw over the next several generations with trillions of dollars of debt, while giving away my rights and freedoms to an all powerful government in the hope that they save us.  

 

Like I said, I'm sure there are some shades in between, but those are the main camps.  I fall pretty squarely in camp #2.  Honestly, I'd rather swallow my .45 than fork over my kids and their kids and and and...

There is another small group of people that don't fit the categories, and they have absorbed a chunk of my life in the last week. Independent small business people who are subject to strong competition, unusually high regulations, and labor laws that have owners looking over their shoulders practically every waking moment. No one particularly cares about these people, politicians use cliches to describe the issues they deal with(and are clearly clueless what they deal with) and in places like California, business people are practically criminalized for simply existing.

Until now.

I have never seen anything like the SBA Loan program known as PPP loans (Paycheck Protection Program). Fast, easy, and generous. All of a sudden, these people, who have had to fight hard to keep their doors open their entire business lives, have the opportunity to get lots of fast easy money...that is going to be forgiven, by my estimate, to the tune of 75-80%, tax-free. Billions of dollars of loans have been approved already (as in close to 100 Billion), and no doubt the 349 Billion budgeted will be tapped out in 10-14 days (100% speculation on my part), and there will be an approval for more funds to be available, no doubt in my mind. The purpose of the loans is to keep people on the payroll over the next 8 weeks. The range of reaction is unlike anything I have ever seen. The business rush for these loans makes the toilet paper run look like a joke. Two of the six businesses I have dealt with on this subject are manic and panicking. They feel like they have been abused for decades, and now it is their turn to cash in. Manically rushing like madmen to their banks, downright abusive. Their employees will keep their jobs for eight weeks. How long will it take to repay those funds? Well, at $349 Billion, maybe it is not the biggest line item of the US debt piling up. And, it is not going to Billionaires or Fortune 500 companies. 

The purpose of the program is great. But no question, this one has all the right elements for fraud and abuse. When things move this fast, that is going to be a natural byproduct. But for some of the people I have seen (two out of six), there is a side to it I don't like, and that is concerning when you think about how, who and when the piper is going to be paid. It's got elements of all three of Rinderle's Theory in it. 

Edited by Hubgeezer
Paycheck, not Payroll the operative word
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Mike Rinderle
Posted (edited)

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?:embed=yes&:toolbar=no&:tabs=n#/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no

The average New Yorker that has died is 2/3 male, 78 years old, with 1.8 comorbidities.  831 of the deaths have been people over 90 years old!  Again, any death is a tragedy and I'm sure their families are crushed.  However, unless you are a front line health worker getting face fulls of this stuff every day, you are more likely to die of the common cold if you are young and healthy.

Another fact that may be causing hospitals to play with the cause of death.  Under the latest bailout, a hospital receives an extra $13,000 if they admit someone who's primary issue is COVID-19.  That jumps to an extra $39k if they have to be put on a ventilator.  Tell me they are not financially incentivised to make sure COVID-19 is the stated cause of death for someone.  Even if that person has terminal cancer and heart failure and the COVID tipped them over the edge a couple weeks early.

As @Hubgeezer points out above, wave some money in front of people with no checks and balances in the fog of war and stuff gets abused.

Edited by Mike Rinderle
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Bearcat 74

Originally our peak date In TN was early April, then mid-April, now it’s June.  Hopefully they’ll continue to be wrong. 

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bdckr
17 hours ago, Mike Rinderle said:

https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?:embed=yes&:toolbar=no&:tabs=n#/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no

The average New Yorker that has died is 2/3 male, 78 years old, with 1.8 comorbidities.  831 of the deaths have been people over 90 years old!  Again, any death is a tragedy and I'm sure their families are crushed.  However, unless you are a front line health worker getting face fulls of this stuff every day, you are more likely to die of the common cold if you are young and healthy.

Another fact that may be causing hospitals to play with the cause of death.  Under the latest bailout, a hospital receives an extra $13,000 if they admit someone who's primary issue is COVID-19.  That jumps to an extra $39k if they have to be put on a ventilator.  Tell me they are not financially incentivised to make sure COVID-19 is the stated cause of death for someone.  Even if that person has terminal cancer and heart failure and the COVID tipped them over the edge a couple weeks early.

As @Hubgeezer points out above, wave some money in front of people with no checks and balances in the fog of war and stuff gets abused.

Thanks for the link. That's really interesting compared to the numbers from Italy.  Of course they're still including high blood pressure as  a "co-morbidity", and that's in > 50% of the deaths, but there's also 19.1% of fatalities without any co-morbidities, which seems really high compared to Italy's 1%.

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king crusher

The projected death rate keeps falling. Now I heard 60k in the United states. 

I wonder what the net death numbers will actually be when you take into account all the lives not lost to car accidents,  crime etc. 

 

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Vinnie
19 hours ago, Tommy J. said:

Exactly. I’m thinking it’s somewhere in the middle of these 2.

 

also, I’m getting real fed up with the hatred and scolding being thrown at those who think this thing is fake, or blown out of proportion. Let them believe what they want and keep your emotions in check. Since your so much smarter than the guy who doesn’t believe it, prove it by how well you can keep your emotions out of it. Only a sick (bad word filter) would “want” this thing to be as bad as its being sold. And only a sick (bad word filter) piece of shit would “want” a non believer to eat their words on what they believe and end up sick with it.

Funny, but I see more ill will and condescension being thrown at those of us who are taking it more seriously, but maybe our respective locations are playing a role.  But I can agree with you that I hope my fears of well over 100K even with social distancing (and far more if we didn't) are wrong.  I will be glad to be wrong in that case.

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climber511

It's pretty easy to argue either side - no one wants to get sick and not have the best treatment options available and possibly die or lose a loved one.  On the other hand being homeless or going bankrupt isn't a very nice thing to contemplate either.  People are going to have to reassess the way they think of quite a few things going forward - money - savings - health - insurance - housing - food and associated supplies - you name it - you may not be able to look at things the way you have always done going forward. 

People are getting testy after being cooped up so long - we'll start seeing some more ugly things going on in households I think.  And the news media and the politicians aren't helping.  One thing I think is I intend to get my "medical" information from actual doctors - not politicians or media talking heads.  Ohio seems to at least have a consistent strategy.

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